Sunday, December 23, 2012

Bond King Bill Gross sees Bond Bubble


PIMCO's Bill Gross, in spite of having made a name for himself in bond trading, bet huge against US Treasuries in 2011. Unfortunately for him, Treasury yields managed to remain low and overall demand remained high, on account of massive bond buying by the US Federal Reserve. Nowadays, Gross is still of the same mind, but with the added knowledge that the Fed is going to continue doing what it's doing. The bond bubble will go on in 2013.


Still, added to his recommendations are not-so-inflatable assets such as gold. When Treasuries do finally fail - and it remains to be seen whether hyperinflation will be allowed to happen first - there will be gold and oil as beneficiaries, where investors' funds will move to.

However, I'm iffy about Gross' recommendation to buy inflation-protected bonds. It has long been known that the government-published inflation rate is fictionally low, not taking into account actual costs of living. If these bonds are 'protected' by yielding as much as the official inflation rate, this will still mean a loss in purchasing power.

It may still be too early to call the collapse of the bond bubble, but it pays to prepare ahead.

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